The upheavals in the Arab region have brought just as little stability as the US-led interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq. The spread of IS terror leads to destabilization, promotes tyranny and destroys many reform efforts. In Libya, the question is whether a viable unity government can be formed and the establishment of the Islamic State prevented. Internal wars and military interventions have led to lasting instability. In view of the numerous armed conflicts, the increasing influence of non-state armed groups (terrorists, warlords) and the weakness of governments to act, some analysts therefore already see disorder, chaos and violence as “the new normal” in some regions. In contrast, a multipolar world order is emerging that is directed against US dominance. But “poles” such as China, India, Russia, Brazil or the European Union either do not have the interest or the ability to ensure security and peace worldwide, either alone or together. The USA, on the other hand, is tired of playing the “world policeman”. Not only because its resources are limited. Above all, because the negative experiences cause more skepticism than motivation for future missions. For Africa in particular, this could mean that armed conflicts could spread unchecked if no one is prepared to take a stand against them. What does this mean for Syria? Can Russia be the new power in the Middle East? Hardly, given its limited resources, the tensions with Turkey and the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. But then who will prevent instability and chaos from becoming the “new normal” in the Middle East and North African region? A question that hangs over current developments like a sword of Damocles.
Please also read the analysis “Saudi Arabia vs. Iran: Islamic power struggle” by IFK expert Walter Posch. Here you can also find further articles by IFK head Brigadier Walter Feichtinger.
