The laborious agreement between the two presidential candidates after the once again highly controversial elections on the distribution of power is probably only an indication of future power struggles. However, the Western community of states will have less of a say, as its interest, sense of responsibility and commitment will wane when the mandate for the international support force ISAF expires – despite all political assurances to the contrary.
This will probably confirm the fear of many Afghans that they will be left alone again by the West, as they were after the final withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989. Although NATO (“Operation Resolute Support”) will continue to accompany and support state-building in cooperation with numerous civilian programs for several years to come, the responsibility lies entirely in Afghan hands, including in the security sector. It will soon become clear how strong the feared Taliban really are and where political and military counterforces can form. The neighborhood with Pakistan will remain problematic due to the cross-border Pashtun settlement areas and the Taliban’s ability to retreat. Indian offers of support, on the other hand, are often aimed more at rival Pakistan than at Afghanistan’s development. In Iran, on the other hand, there is growing fear of an unhindered flow of drugs from its eastern neighbor. Afghanistan’s geopolitical importance has diminished with the withdrawal of the majority of US troops, as the fight against Islamic extremists has now shifted to Syria and Iraq. Drug cultivation has never been the focus of countermeasures; it is primarily a problem for European countries and Russia. There is a glimmer of hope in the fact that, in the course of foreign involvement since 2001, civil society forces have emerged that are willing to engage and work for a more modern Afghanistan.
Please also read the analysis “Hope for peace at last?” by IFK expert Markus Gauster. Here you can also find further articles by IFK head Brigadier Walter Feichtinger.
