When we talk about a blackout, i.e. a large-scale and prolonged power failure, we are talking about something that is absolutely unimaginable for most people. Herbert Saurugg is an expert in crisis preparedness and has been working on this topic for a long time. He has shed some light on the subject for us.
Mr. Saurugg, the topic of blackouts comes and goes in waves, be it through a successful novel or now through the coronavirus pandemic. Do you think the coronavirus shutdown has made people more aware of the issue? For most of us, it was probably the first situation like this …
My perception is that those who have already dealt with it before now see their fears confirmed. And those who haven’t dealt with it before are still so preoccupied with the current situation that they can’t even think about another topic. Nevertheless, the pandemic is likely to have had an impact overall, simply because we have seen how quickly things can change. That’s why the topic is perhaps a little easier to address at the moment. However, it is important that the right actions are taken. And I doubt that even in the current context of the coronavirus pandemic. There is simply still a lack of awareness of the danger because most people can hardly imagine a blackout. We’ve seen this in a similar way now with the pandemic.
“There is simply still a lack of awareness of the danger because most people can hardly imagine a blackout.”
Was it perhaps still too much of a graze in Austria for that? Fortunately, it has to be said …
Because the whole thing in Austria has fortunately ended a little more mildly than was initially feared, I believe that parts of the population now think that a lot of exaggeration was involved. In Austria, the pandemic really was just a graze. However, comparing it to a blackout would not be accurate at all, because in the event of a blackout, everything stops immediately. Then you suddenly no longer have the option of getting something quickly. That’s why I still hope that more people will become aware of this danger. But I’m not sure about that.
Were you surprised that the so-called hoarding purchases occurred?
No. Basically, this is a normal reaction of people in an unusual situation. In my opinion, the accompanying communication, which sometimes portrayed the so-called hoarders as stupid, was not quite right. At this point, of course, it must also be said that unnecessary purchases such as buying large quantities of toilet paper are absolute nonsense. However, in order to prevent or at least curb this, we should have communicated more strongly that considered purchases are important. That although precaution is essential, buying large quantities of goods is nonsense. I had already anticipated that there would be major problems, for example in the supply of medicines or food. It all worked out much better than I expected. However, a recent Austrian study found that the logistics chains are not very robust. In Switzerland, too, massive problems with the supply of vital goods were still expected in March and corresponding scenarios were even played out. We were probably luckier than we realized.
In an interview with Brigadier Sylvia Sperandio, which I had the pleasure of conducting a few weeks ago, she said that the pandemic plans in Austria were not really up to date when the coronavirus crisis broke out. Do such plans also exist for a blackout and how up-to-date are they?
These plans do not exist. Although there are considerations for individual areas, there are no concrete plans. Many institutions think that an emergency power supply is enough. Especially in the area of hospitals and care facilities, however, such an assessment must be viewed very critically and is quite dangerous. This is because there are a large number of underestimated supply dependencies. And storage capacities are being cut back everywhere because they are expensive. The supply range is generally short. We have also seen this with protective equipment.
What are currently the biggest sources of danger that could lead to a blackout in the not-too-distant future? What role do climatic conditions play, for example?
Even if you can’t really believe it in Austria at the moment, heat and drought are playing a major role in Europe. We already had a situation in Poland in August 2015 where the situation escalated to such an extent that we were at escalation level 19 out of 20. 20 would have meant that there would have been uncontrollable shutdowns. There hasn’t been a situation like this since 1980. And if heatwaves do occur now, the situation will have to be monitored critically. If, for example, the cooling of large power plants is severely impaired, this will naturally have an impact on system security. During the lockdown, we had a situation in Europe where there was a large surplus of electricity in some areas. This also means increased danger and system instability. However, very few people noticed this.
Interview continues below the video.
Lecture by Herbert Saurugg: Are we fit enough to survive?
If there is a blackout, will it be limited to Austria or will it occur throughout Europe?
When I talk about a blackout, I’m always talking about Europe. If Austria, Germany or Switzerland are involved or even the trigger, then it is very likely that large parts of Europe will be affected. Of course, this is also due to the fact that there is a great deal of exchange across national borders in this area. Unfortunately, here too, it is increasingly the market and not system security that counts.
What role does the armed forces play in the event of a blackout?
When it comes to a blackout, it’s actually already too late. I have been trying for some time to motivate the armed forces to invest more time in prevention. When everything is at a standstill, the armed forces will no longer be able to provide for themselves sufficiently, let alone help others. What the armed forces could do preventively is to focus on crisis management and resilience in their training. If the soldiers trained in this area were then to bring the topic to their companies, communities and families, a great deal would already have been achieved. They could apply the knowledge they have gained by, for example, helping communities to tackle the issue properly. Most communities have few resources and hardly any know-how. The military would therefore have an atypical function in this case. And as I have often said: National defense today is no longer national defense in 1980
“personal responsibility is an absolute necessity, especially when it comes to blackouts.”
In what way?
The survival of society must be ensured. And that would be massively jeopardized by a blackout. It is therefore a question of enabling communities to provide for themselves and help themselves. That is definitely the most important point. The term blackout is often used in social discourse, but if more people could imagine what it actually means, then a lot more would happen in this regard. It is important that we take action. Talking about it alone is not enough. And the first step always starts in our personal environment: being able to look after ourselves for two weeks without having to go shopping.
So ultimately it’s about personal responsibility?
This is a key point and at the same time an incredibly difficult one, because in a way we live in a fully comprehensive society where you hardly have to worry about things. But when it comes to blackouts, personal responsibility is an absolute necessity.
