In this series, we take a look at 5 current conflicts, crises and events around the world every two weeks. This time in focus: Russia revises its nuclear doctrine, new refugee route in the southern Mediterranean, USA fears escalation in the Middle East and delivers new missile defense for Israel.
Event #1: Chinese maneuvers off Taiwan again
Last Thursday, President Lai Ching-te emphasized in a speech on Taiwan National Day that Taiwan is not subordinate to China. China’s response to this commitment to Taiwan’s independence did not fail to materialize: On Monday, China launched its second large-scale encirclement maneuver around Taiwan, involving naval units as well as ground and air forces. As can be seen from a report in the Global Times a Communist Party (CP) newspaper, this time the armed forces moved much closer to Taiwan’s coast than during the first maneuver in May. The United States is “seriously concerned” about China’s military exercises, which a US State Department spokesman described as provocations that threaten to escalate tensions in the region. The US and China have been locked in a “Great Game” for years over supremacy in the Indo-Pacific, according to an article in Foreign Affairs magazine analyzes in detail. https://militaeraktuell.at/miliz-trifft-wirtschaft-bei-gdels-steyr-wien/
Event #2: New refugee route in the Mediterranean
According to the Frankfurter Allgemeine a new refugee route to the EU is opening up in the southern Mediterranean. More and more migrants are arriving on Crete and the island of Gavdos off the coast of Crete from North Africa. Previously, the refugee routes ran via the eastern Aegean, where migrants mainly arrived on the islands of Kos, Leros, Samos, Chios and Lesbos, which are within sight of the Turkish coast. In contrast, hardly any refugees have arrived on Crete so far. The starting point for the refugee boats is the Libyan port city of Tobruk. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) stated in May that more than 700,000 migrants were in Libya. Libyan officials, however, say that the actual number is over two million. As the redistribution of asylum seekers within the EU is not working, Greece is also trying to persuade people to move on to other EU countries: As human rights organizations reporthuman rights organizations report that thousands of asylum seekers have not received even the usual minimum payment of 75 euros per month for almost six months.
Event #3: US missile defense for Israel
The USA deploys missile defense systems and a hundred soldiers to Israel. According to the New York Times the USA is thus becoming entangled in the escalating Middle East war in which an Israeli attack on Iran is imminent. The deployment of the missile system THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile system shows that the United States is assuming such a comprehensive Israeli attack on Iran that Tehran will have to respond, the US newspaper quotes a Middle East expert. Israel wants to respond to the Iranian missile attack on October 3 with its strike against Tehran. This in turn followed the assassination of high-ranking Iranian, Hamas and Hezbollah representatives by Israel. Although this attack did not cause any significant damage, it showed that Israel’s sophisticated missile defense system can be overcome. Israel’s air defense system is now to be strengthened by the THAAD battery.
Event #4: Russia changes nuclear doctrine
At the end of September Russia changed its nuclear doctrinewhich regulates the circumstances under which the country can use nuclear weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow would also use nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear-armed state in future if it posed a critical threat to Russian sovereignty. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine (-> current news from the Ukraine war), Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons several times. The risk of a nuclear war is higher than it has been since the end of the Cold War, writes The Washington Post in an analysis In particular, the use of tactical nuclear weapons appears realistic to nuclear warfare expert Severin Pleyer. “This can be the breaking up of enemy defenses on a broader front or the wearing down of an advancing enemy. They can therefore be used both in defense and in an attack,” says Pleyer in our “5 questions to” interview on the topic.
Event #5: Trauma in the Middle East
October 7 marked one year since Hamas attacked southern Israel. Israel responded to the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust with a war of attrition in Gaza. This “war without rules of behavior”, as the Israeli sociologist Yagil Levy in the Standard interviewhas cost the lives of tens of thousands of civilians and evoked memories of the Nakba – the expulsion of 1948 – among Palestinians. The ARTE documentary “Trauma in the Middle East – October 7 and its consequences” sheds light on the lack of empathy on both sides and attempts to explain why the spiral of violence in the Middle East continues.
Click here for “5 views of the world #011“: What was? What is? What will be?
Topics: Israel kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Russia advances on the eastern front and Sweden’s new commander-in-chief wants to reorganize Ukraine aid.
